Hearthstone HCT Spring Championship 2017 decks, results, and analysis

Hearthstone Championship Tour’s (HCT) Spring Championship 2017 was played from 7th to 9th July in Shanghai, China. Sixteen players from four regional playoffs had qualified for this major tournament with a $250,000 prize pool.

In this post, I take a look at the decks and results, including class distribution, archetypes, archetype performance, and ban decisions.

Results

The event was played in a best-of-five Conquest format with one ban. It started with a double-elimination group stage followed by single-elimination playoffs.

The players were divided into four groups of four players with one player from each region in each group. The best two players from each group advanced to the single-elimination playoffs.

Group A:

Group B:

Group C:

Group D:

After the group stages, all four players from Europe remained in the tournament, joined by two players from each Americas and Asia-Pacific. All Chinese players were eliminated from the tournament.

The playoffs saw Europe’s domination continue with all Europeans winning their matches against other regions. It was only the Kolento vs Rdu intra-European match that kept one of Europe’s players from advancing.

The top four players of the tournament earned a spot in the World Championships: Hoej, Neirea, Kolento, and Ant will be headed for that tournament early next year alongside the top players from other seasonal Championships.

In the Grand Final, Hoej was able to defeat Kolento and was crowned the HCT Spring Champion!

Class distribution

The decklists were published before the tournament in Blizzard’s own preview article.

Classes from the most popular to the least popular:

  • Druid: 13
  • Rogue: 11
  • Mage: 10
  • Paladin: 10
  • Warrior: 10
  • Shaman: 9
  • Priest: 1
  • Hunter: 0
  • Warlock: Zero. Zippo. Nada. Zilch.

Warlock remains dead as expected, and this time one Priest was in the competition and no one chose to bring Hunter.

Between the other six classes, the distribution was more even than ever before. Druid was the most popular class this time, but it did not reach the heights Paladin and Shaman reached at their peak.

Archetype distribution by class and performance

The archetype variety was slightly lower in this tournament than many others, but most classes continued to sport multiple archetypes.

Consolidation had mainly taken place in Shaman – Evolve Shaman taking eight of the nine spots – and in Rogue, where Quest Rogue was the only archetype players brought; no one brought Miracle Rogue.

In Mage, Secret Mage made a somewhat surprising comeback, considering its waning results after it originally took the ladder by storm. It was not able to reverse its recent performance trend, and turned out to be the worst archetype in the tournament with a 6-12 record (33% win rate).

In sharp contrast to Secret Mage, the other Mage archetypes were some of the best-performing archetypes in the entire tournament. Freeze Mage was the only undefeated archetype, but at 1-0 and getting banned twice, we hardly got to see it. The third Mage archetype, Gunther Mage, saw more play, and really rocked the field with an impressive 9-3 showing (75% win rate).

Other archetypes that succeeded in the tournament were Aggro Druid (6-1), Pirate Warrior (10-6), and Quest Rogue (14-11). Quest Rogue and Aggro Druid were by far the most banned archetypes at 12 and 10 bans respectively. The third-most banned archetype was Evolve Shaman at six bans. It had a bit more of a rough time, but was still able to squeeze out a positive record at 15-14.

In addition to Secret Mage, the archetypes that really struggled were Jade Druid (10-17) and Taunt Warrior (6-11). Midrange Paladin (9-10) was saved by Hoej alone, who piloted his version of the deck to an impressive 6-1 record (including one win in a mirror, so 5-1 excluding mirrors). Without Hoej, Midrange Paladin would have been the worst archetype of them all. No other player had such a profound effect on the performance of an entire archetype in the tournament.

Archetype performance excluding mirror matches:

Paladin

  • 3 Control Paladin (4-6, banned 1 time)
  • 3 Murloc Paladins (3-2, banned 3 times)
  • 4 Midrange Paladins (9-10)

Warrior

  • 5 Pirate Warriors (10-6, banned 4 times)
  • 5 Taunt Warriors (6-11, banned 5 times)

Druid

  • 6 Aggro Druids (6-1, banned 10 times)
  • 7 Jade Druids (10-17, banned 5 times)

Mage

  • 5 Gunther Mages (9-3, banned 5 times)
  • 4 Secret Mages (6-12)
  • 1 Freeze Mage (1-0, banned 2 times)

Rogue

  • 11 Quest Rogues (14-11, banned 12 times)

Shaman

  • 8 Evolve Shamans (15-14, banned 6 times)
  • 1 Jade Shaman (banned 1 time)

Priest

  • 1 Combo Priest (1-1)

Bans

Bans are always a hotly contested subject to analyze: while we have good sample sizes on matchup performances on the ladder (from Vicious Syndicate, for example), there are always arguments for and against almost any ban choices in tournaments. Either it is claimed that for absolute top players, the matchups do not work the same way as for other players, or it is pointed out that players have made specific tech choices that significantly alter the expected results.

While there is a grain of truth in both arguments – especially the tech choice argument – the data we have from ladder still forms the baseline for comparison. It is also quite accurate predictor of bans in high-level games, and any bans that differ from these expectations are interesting to examine in more detail.

Out of the 54 bans in the tournament, 38 were as expected based on general statistics. Many of the unexpected bans made little to no difference, even falling within the uncertainty inherent in win rates – if a different ban is supposedly 1% worse, that is statistically insignificant and could be just noise, maybe it is even the better ban if we had perfect information.

It is interesting to note how profound of an effect the opponent’s lineup has for ideal ban decisions. Neirea, for example, ended up banning four different decks during the tournament, and each of his bans was seemingly correct, including one ban based on the tech cards he had chosen for his decks. Some lineups have clear decks that they want to ban almost every time, but for many lineups, the correct ban depends heavily on the entire lineup of the opponent.

Some of the ban decisions I am unable to find support for include:

  • Group A losers’ match, Xhope banning Taunt Warrior instead of Quest Rogue. Neirea was obviously going to ban Aggro Druid. Xhope can have either one unfavorable and two even matchups against Taunt Warrior or two unfavorable and one even matchup against Quest Rogue.
  • Group A decider match, Muzzy banning Gunther Mage instead of Quest Rogue. Neirea should ban Midrange Paladin, but he did not in the first round because he had teched against it. If Neirea keeps his Jade Druid ban, Muzzy is not perfect, but he is fine, but if Neirea switches, Muzzy can have either one favorable and two even matchups against Gunther Mage or one unfavorable and two even against Quest Rogue.
  • Group D winners’ match, Ant banning Gunther Mage instead of Evolve Shaman. Rdu was going to ban Evolve Shaman, leaving his Evolve Shaman with only favorable matchups, unlike his Gunther Mage, which was more even.
  • Semi-final 2, Kolento banning Gunther Mage instead of Quest Rogue. Neirea’s Quest Rogue ban was obvious, and Kolento’s response seemed to be obvious too. Kolento chose two highly unfavorable and one favorable over favorable, even, and unfavorable matchups. He got that one favorable and it was key to him winning the match. Hidden brilliance?
  • Grand Final, Hoej banning Taunt Warrior instead of Evolve Shaman, leaving him with no favorable matchups against Shaman as compared to one highly favorable matchup against Warrior. He went on to win against the Shaman deck twice anyway.

Bans by player (expected bans / all bans, decks banned):

Muzzy: 1/3, Gunther Mage (2), Aggro Druid (1)

Neirea: 5/5, Jade Druid (2), Aggro Druid (1), Midrange Paladin (1), Quest Rogue (1)

Xhope: 1/2, Evolve Shaman (1), Taunt Warrior (1)

CitizenNappa: 2/3, Taunt Warrior (1), Gunther Mage (1), Evolve Shaman (1)

Hoej: 4/6, Aggro Druid (4), Taunt Warrior (2)

Kranich: 1/3, Evolve Shaman (2), Aggro Druid (1)

Kuonet: 3/3, Quest Rogue (2), Jade Druid (1)

Dogggg: 2/2, Control Paladin (1), Aggro Druid (1)

Mage: 3/3, Jade Druid (2), Pirate Warrior (1)

Trunks: 2/3, Quest Rogue (3)

Kolento: 5/6, Quest Rogue (3), Freeze Mage (1), Aggro Druid (1), Gunther Mage (1)

DiegoDias: 2/2, Quest Rogue (2)

JasonZhou: 2/2, Aggro Druid (1), Quest Rogue (1)

Ant: 3/5, Jade Shaman (1), Gunther Mage (1), Pirate Warrior (1), Freeze Mage (1), Evolve Shaman (1)

Tredsred: 0/3, Pirate Warrior (2), Murloc Paladin (1)

Rdu: 2/3, Murloc Paladin (1), Evolve Shaman (1), Taunt Warrior (1)

Queueing order

The optimal queueing strategy in Conquest format is to pick your next deck randomly. However, it is typical for players to exhibit certain queueing patterns that can then potentially be taken advantage of by their opponents. The results have varied between tournaments: even in some high-level tournaments players have most of the time stayed with the same deck, whereas in others they have changed their deck slightly more than half of the time which would be the expected result from random picks (small sample sizes can skew the results).

Another aspect of queueing order is the deck that the player starts the match with. If the player always starts with the same deck, the opponent can take advantage of this and counter-queue a favorable matchup.

As expected at this level, players did not stick to a single pattern. When given the option between switching their deck or staying with the same one, players kept the same deck 25 times and switched 37 times.

Players also varied the deck they started with, and not only because of bans.

Queueing order habits by player (times stayed on same deck / opportunities to switch, starter deck):

Muzzy: 1/4, started with Midrange Paladin (2), Evolve Shaman (1)

Neirea: 2/6, started with Quest Rogue (2), Jade Druid (2), Gunther Mage (1)

Xhope: 0/3, started with Evolve Shaman (1), Combo Priest (1)

CitizenNappa: 3/5, started with Aggro Druid (1), Quest Rogue (1), Evolve Shaman (1)

Hoej: 3/3, started with Pirate Warrior (1), Midrange Paladin (4), Quest Rogue (1)

Kranich: 1/4, started with Secret Mage (2), Quest Rogue (1)

Kuonet: 1/3, started with Taunt Warrior (1), Jade Druid (1), Control Paladin (1)

Dogggg: 1/4, started with Murloc Paladin (1), Quest Rogue (1)

Mage: 2/5, started with Control Paladin (2), Evolve Shaman (1)

Trunks: 3/4, started with Midrange Paladin (1), Gunther Mage (2)

Kolento: 2/7, started with Taunt Warrior (2), Evolve Shaman (3), Jade Druid (1)

DiegoDias: 0/2, started with Jade Druid (1), Control Paladin (1)

JasonZhou: 4/4, started with Murloc Paladin (1), Jade Druid (1)

Ant: 4/5, started with Evolve Shaman (2), Secret Mage (3)

Tredsred: 1/4, started with Secret Mage (1), Murloc Paladin (1), Quest Rogue (1)

Rdu: 0/0, started with Evolve Shaman (2), Pirate Warrior (1)

How often does the favorite win?

Simply looking at general statistics, the player favored to win did so in 16 matches, whereas the underdog won 11 matches.

The surprisingly poor performance of Chinese players becomes even more apparent when viewed in this light. None of the Chinese players managed to win an unfavorable match, but overall they lost five favorable matches (discussing match-level here, not individual games). Perhaps this is coincidence, or perhaps the pressure of playing on home turf had an effect – home ground can be an advantage, but it can also be a disadvantage.

Looking at the top four players, all of them had to progress through some hard encounters, as people who reach the top of any tournament usually do.

Neirea and Ant had both the lineup and the plays to bring them to the semi-finals: both won three favorable matches and lost one unfavorable match up to that point. Hoej was all over the place, winning two favorable matches, losing a favorable match, but recovering to win an unfavorable quarter-final. As for Kolento, well, his path was a real mystery: he lost his only favorable match, but proceeded to win one even and two unfavorable matches on the way to the semi-finals.

Both semi-finals ended with a surprise winner as far as lineups are concerned. Ant and Neirea were heavily favored, but Hoej and Kolento managed to grab the wins. Hoej was the heavy favorite to win the finals, and for the first time in the tournament Kolento was unable to win an unfavorable match!

Kolento’s path truly defied all odds, and undoubtedly some of it will be attributed to luck: In the quarter-final against Rdu, for example, he topdecked his only out (Preparation as Quest Rogue) in the final game to take the match 3-2. He also won against Jade Druid twice with Taunt Warrior, a feat that is almost impossible to pull off without the Jade Druid getting some bad draws. On the other hand, he played extremely well throughout the tournament with those Taunt Warrior games being some of the best Hearthstone he has played. He has piloted Taunt Warrior to #1 legend on multiple regions, so perhaps his success with it is not that surprising.

The only unfavorable match he lost was also one of the only ones where he made a mistake: playing Maelstrom Portal before his minions on turn 4, getting Emerald Hive Queen that did not die for multiple turns, and being effectively locked out from flooding the board as Token Shaman, resulting in a lost game he did not recover from during the match.

Deck spotlights

The Championships are not really the place to look for radical new deck ideas. Players tend to be risk-averse when submitting their lineups for these top-end tournaments, especially so as they are played in Conquest format where you need to find those wins with each deck.

There were only a couple of off-meta decks in the tournament, and they were unable to find success – in the case of Jade Shaman, it could not even get a single game to show whether it is good or not.

Nonetheless, it is interesting to look at what decks were able to succeed at the very highest level.

Here are some of the top picks!

Hoej’s Midrange Paladin

Hoej was the lone truly successful champion of Midrange Paladin in the tournament with his teammate Kranich being the second-most successful with the exact same deck.

The deck itself is not new, Hoej brought the exact same list to Dreamhack Summer and did well with it there. Nonetheless, this list that includes Vinecleaver and Deathwing proved to be able to do something other Midrange Paladin lists in the tournament could not.

Deck code: AAECAZ8FCsIGzwb6Bq8H2a4CubICvL0C474CucECg8cCCtsD3AOnCNOqAtO8ArPBApvCAp3CArHCAojHAgA=

Kolento’s Taunt Warrior

It is pure, it is simple, it is the Taunt Warrior with most wins in the tournament. One way or another, Kolento just made it work. The other successful Taunt Warrior was from Kuonet, who had Dirty Rats and Harrison Jones in his version, but Kolento chose not to go for many tech cards: just stick to the game plan, complete the quest, and win.

Deck code: AAECAQcGkAP8BLIIubIC08MCoscCDEuRA9QEkQb7DIKtAtKuAv68ApvCAsbDAsrDAsnHAgA=

Neirea’s Gunther Mage

Gunther Mage performed very well for several players, there was no single build of it that outperformed the others. Neirea, Rdu, and Trunks all piloted their builds to a 2-0 record, with Neirea and Trunks running more traditional builds and Rdu opting to go for more of a hybrid build with some Freeze Mage elements.

Deck code: AAECAf0ECk1xigHFBOwHvwj7DKG3AtPFApbHAgrAAbsClQOrBJYFo7YC17YC6boCwcECmMQCAA==

Rdu’s Hybrid Gunther Mage

An alternative to the traditional build, Rdu borrowed some elements from Freeze Mage to come up with this one. The deck still includes Medivh, so it is slightly more reminiscent of Gunther Mage than some other hybrid builds.

Deck code: AAECAf0EBnHFBOwHvwihtwLpugIMigHAAbsClQOrBMsElgX7DKO2Ate2AsHBApjEAgA=

Rdu’s Aggro Druid

Aggro Druid performed solidly for everyone who brought it. Rdu’s version is crab-heavy, featuring one Hungry Crab and two Golakka Crawlers. Everyone had a slightly different take on the deck, and they all did well, so the core of the deck is definitely strong.

Deck code: AAECAZICBLsDtAXZB5G8Ag3+AfcD5gXlB8GrArazAs27AobBAp/CAq/CAuTCAuvCAsrDAgA=

Hoej’s Pirate Warrior

Hoej had decided that minions and weapons are the core of the deck: there are no Mortal Strikes, but there are two copies of Spellbreaker instead. There is also a Bittertide Hydra ready for assault. Taunts shall not stop Hoej from going face!

Deck code: AAECAQcEyAOvBJG8Aq/CAg0csAKRA/8DjgWoBdQF8gXuBucH7weCsAKIsAIA

Appendix 1: Decks and performance by player

Hoej:

  • 6-1 Midrange Murloc Paladin (2xGrimscale Chum, Blessing of Kings, Vinecleaver, Deathwing)
  • 5-4 Pirate Warrior (2xSpellbreaker, Bittertide Hydra)
  • 4-2 Quest Rogue
  • 1-0 Evolve Shaman (Barnes, 1xStonehill Defender)

Neirea:

  • 2-0 Gunther Mage (Doomsayer, Acolyte of Pain, Counterspell, Polymorph)
  • 3-4 Jade Druid (Hungry Crab, 1xFeral Rage, Gluttonous Ooze)
  • 5-1 Quest Rogue
  • 2-5 Taunt Warrior (2xDirty Rat, Harrison Jones)

Rdu:

  • 2-0 Aggro Druid (Hungry Crab, 2xGolakka Crawler, 2xTar Creeper, Druid of the Claw)
  • 2-0 Gunther Mage (2xDoomsayer, 2xFrost Nova, Volcanic Potion, 2xAcolyte of Pain, Medivh)
  • 2-0 Pirate Warrior (Spellbreaker, Mortal Strike)
  • 2-3 Evolve Shaman (Barnes, 1xStonehill Defender)

Kolento:

  • 4-5 Jade Druid (Hungry Crab, 1xFeral Rage, Mind Control Tech)
  • 1-3 Quest Rogue (Tar Creeper, 2xStonetusk Boar – no Swashburglars)
  • 4-2 Taunt Warrior
  • 5-3 Evolve Shaman

Mage:

  • 2-3 N’Zoth Control Paladin (Loot Hoarder)
  • 1-0 Freeze Mage (Eater of Secrets, Archmage Antonidas)
  • 1-1 Quest Rogue
  • 3-2 Evolve Shaman (1xMaelstrom Portal, 1xLightning Storm)

Tredsred:

  • 1-0 Murloc Paladin (2xGrimscale Chum, 2xColdlight Seer, 2xBlessing of Kings, 2xSpikeridged Steed, The Curator)
  • 1-1 Pirate Warrior (2xNaga Corsair, 2xBittertide Hydra, Captain Greenskin)
  • 0-2 Quest Rogue
  • 1-3 Secret Mage (2xCounterspell, 2xMirror Entity, Medivh, Yogg-Saron)

CitizenNappa:

  • 1-0 Aggro Druid (2xTar Creeper, Genzo the Shark)
  • 2-2 Pirate Warrior (2xGrimy Gadgeteer, Spellbreaker)
  • 2-1 Quest Rogue
  • 2-3 Evolve Shaman

Kranich:

  • Aggro Druid (2xTar Creeper, Shellshifter, Swipe, Druid of the Claw, Crazed Alchemist)
  • 2-3 Midrange Murloc Paladin (2xGrimscale Chum, Blessing of Kings, Vinecleaver, Deathwing)
  • 2-2 Quest Rogue (Golakka Crawler, 2xStonetusk Boar – no Swashburglars)
  • 2-3 Secret Mage (2xCounterspell, Ice Block, Mirror Entity, Burgly Bully, Archmage Antonidas)

Muzzy:

  • 1-1 Gunther Mage (Counterspell, Archmage Antonidas, Medivh, Doomsayer, Acolyte of Pain)
  • 2-0 Jade Druid (Wild Pyromancer, Yogg-Saron)
  • 1-4 Midrange Murloc Paladin (2xGrimscale Chum, 2xBlessing of Kings, Crazed Alchemist, Onyxia)
  • 2-2 Evolve Shaman (2xSea Giant, 1xDevolve, 1xBloodlust)

Kuonet:

  • 2-2 Gunther Mage (Ice Barrier, Eater of Secrets, Gluttonous Ooze)
  • 1-1 Control Paladin (2xStampeding Kodo, Gluttonous Ooze, Elise the Trailblazer, Lay on Hands)
  • 2-1 Jade Druid (Doomsayer, Gluttonous Ooze)
  • 2-0 Taunt Warrior (2xDirty Rat, Harrison Jones)

DiegoDias:

  • 1-2 N’Zoth Control Paladin
  • 1-1 Jade Druid (Hungry Crab, Golakka Crawler, Gluttonous Ooze, The Curator)
  • Quest Rogue (2xHungry Crab, 2xTar Creeper)
  • 0-3 Taunt Warrior (2xAcolyte of Pain, Harrison Jones)

Ant:

  • 2-1 Aggro Druid (2xTar Creeper, Hungry Crab, Swipe, Druid of the Claw)
  • 1-0 Pirate Warrior (Mortal Strike, Spellbreaker, Grimy Gadgeteer)
  • 3-4 Secret Mage (Pyros, 2xCounterspell, Mirror Entity, Spellbender, Yogg-Saron)
  • 3-3 Evolve Shaman

JasonZhou:

  • 1-0 Murloc Paladin (2xGrimscale Chum, 2xColdlight Seer, Crazed Alchemist, 1xBlessing of Kings, The Curator)
  • 0-6 Jade Druid (Gluttonous Ooze, Yogg-Saron)
  • Quest Rogue (2xHungry Crab, 2xStonetusk Boarr – no Swashburglars)
  • Jade Shaman (2xSpirit Echo, 1xLightning Storm, 2xVolcano, 1xJade Chieftain, Harrison Jones)

Xhope:

  • 1-0 Aggro Druid (Hungry Crab, Golakka Crawler, 2xTar Creeper, Genzo the Shark, Swipe)
  • 1-1 Combo Priest (Lightwarden, 2xInner Fire, 2xInjured Blademaster, 2xTar Creeper, Priest of the Feast, Kabal Songstealer)
  • 0-3 Taunt Warrior (2xDirty Rat)
  • 1-2 Evolve Shaman (1xDevolve, Sea Giant)

Dogggg:

  • Aggro Druid (2xHungry Crab, Golakka Crawler, 2xTar Creeper, Swipe)
  • 1-2 Murloc Paladin (2xGrimscale Chum, 2xColdlight Seer, 1xBlessing of Kings, The Curator, Primordial Drake)
  • 1-2 Quest Rogue (2xHungry Crab, 2xStonetusk Boar – no Swashburglars)
  • 0-2 Secret Mage (2xCounterspell, 2xIce Block, Gluttonous Ooze, Medivh)

Trunks:

  • 2-0 Gunther Mage (Pyros, Counterspell, Gluttonous Ooze, Kabal Courier, Volcanic Potion, Polymorph)
  • 1-3 Jade Druid (Gluttonous Ooze, Yogg-Saron)
  • 1-3 Midrange Murloc Paladin (2xAldor Peacekeeper)
  • 1-0 Quest Rogue (Hungry Crab, Golakka Crawler)

Appendix 2: HCT Spring Championship 2017 matches

Raw data on matches, lineups, and bans.

Group A, round 1: Muzzy vs Neirea

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Gunther Mage Jade Druid Quest Rogue Taunt Warrior
Gunther Mage 0.5 0.38 0.51 0.51
Jade Druid 0.62 0.5 0.27 0.7
Midrange Paladin 0.57 0.63 0.51 0.68
Evolve Shaman 0.45 0.53 0.54 0.41

 

Match win rates with each ban combination:

Decks Gunther Mage Jade Druid Quest Rogue Taunt Warrior
Gunther Mage 56% 55% 61% 53%
Jade Druid 53% 53% 52% 52%
Midrange Paladin 47% 50% 51% 46%
Evolve Shaman 55% 59% 61% 50%

 

Expected bans: Muzzy was expected to ban Quest Rogue and Neirea was expected to ban Midrange Paladin.

Neirea has Hungry Crab and Gluttonous Ooze in his Jade Druid, which can improve its matchup against Paladin, so Jade Druid ban is another option Neirea can consider.

Actual bans: Muzzy banned Gunther Mage and Neirea banned Jade Druid.

Expected winner: Muzzy at 53%

Games:

Midrange Paladin loses to Quest Rogue

Midrange Paladin wins against Jade Druid

Gunther Mage wins against Taunt Warrior

Evolve Shaman wins against Taunt Warrior

Muzzy 3 – Neirea 1.

Group A, round 1: Xhope vs CitizenNappa

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Aggro Druid Pirate Warrior Quest Rogue Evolve Shaman
Aggro Druid 0.5 0.61 0.67 0.45
Combo Priest 0.56 0.41 0.37 0.44
Taunt Warrior 0.7 0.5 0.31 0.59
Evolve Shaman 0.55 0.62 0.54 0.5

 

Match win rates with each ban combination:

Decks Aggro Druid Pirate Warrior Quest Rogue Evolve Shaman
Aggro Druid 45% 53% 57% 52%
Combo Priest 56% 57% 61% 60%
Taunt Warrior 51% 52% 53% 56%
Evolve Shaman 46% 52% 55% 53%

 

Expected bans: Xhope was expected to ban Quest Rogue or Evolve Shaman and CitizenNappa was expected to ban Taunt Warrior, Evolve Shaman, or Aggro Druid.

For Xhope, Quest Rogue ban is the best in every other case except if CitizenNappa bans Taunt Warrior. Unfortunately, CitizenNappa banning Taunt Warrior is his best ban if Xhope bans Quest Rogue. Then Xhope should ban Evolve Shaman instead, in which case CitizenNappa should ban Aggro Druid. CitizenNappa can also ban Evolve Shaman, which is between the other two alternatives in both bans Xhope may make.

Actual bans: Xhope banned Evolve Shaman and CitizenNappa banned Taunt Warrior.

Expected winner: Xhope at 56%

Games:

Evolve Shaman loses to Aggro Druid

Aggro Druid wins against Quest Rogue

Combo Priest loses to Quest Rogue

Evolve Shaman loses to Pirate Warrior

Xhope 1 – CitizenNappa 3.

Group A, winners’ match: Muzzy vs CitizenNappa

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Aggro Druid Pirate Warrior Quest Rogue Evolve Shaman
Gunther Mage 0.54 0.46 0.51 0.55
Jade Druid 0.38 0.48 0.27 0.47
Midrange Paladin 0.39 0.38 0.51 0.46
Evolve Shaman 0.55 0.62 0.54 0.5

 

Match win rates with each ban combination:

Decks Aggro Druid Pirate Warrior Quest Rogue Evolve Shaman
Gunther Mage 43% 40% 43% 40%
Jade Druid 50% 51% 48% 49%
Midrange Paladin 47% 45% 50% 45%
Evolve Shaman 41% 40% 42% 37%

 

Expected bans: Muzzy was expected to ban Quest Rogue and CitizenNappa was expected to ban Evolve Shaman.

Actual bans: Muzzy banned Aggro Druid and CitizenNappa banned Gunther Mage.

Expected winner: CitizenNappa at 57%

Games:

Midrange Paladin loses to Quest Rogue

Evolve Shaman wins against Evolve Shaman

Jade Druid wins against Evolve Shaman

Midrange Paladin loses to Evolve Shaman

Midrange Paladin loses to Pirate Warrior

Muzzy 2 – CitizenNappa 3.

Group A, losers’ match: Neirea vs Xhope

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Aggro Druid Combo Priest Taunt Warrior Evolve Shaman
Gunther Mage 0.54 0.52 0.51 0.55
Jade Druid 0.38 0.57 0.7 0.47
Quest Rogue 0.33 0.63 0.69 0.46
Taunt Warrior 0.7 0.48 0.5 0.59

 

Match win rates with each ban combination:

Decks Aggro Druid Combo Priest Taunt Warrior Evolve Shaman
Gunther Mage 63% 58% 52% 61%
Jade Druid 59% 57% 56% 58%
Quest Rogue 58% 59% 56% 58%
Taunt Warrior 63% 55% 50% 60%

 

Expected bans: Neirea was expected to ban Aggro Druid and Xhope was expected to ban Quest Rogue.

Actual bans: Neirea banned Aggro Druid and Xhope banned Taunt Warrior.

Expected winner: Neirea at 63%

Games:

Jade Druid loses to Combo Priest

Gunther Mage wins against Taunt Warrior

Jade Druid loses to Evolve Shaman

Jade Druid wins against Taunt Warrior

Quest Rogue wins against Taunt Warrior

Neirea 3 – Xhope 2.

Group A, decider match: Muzzy vs Neirea

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Gunther Mage Jade Druid Quest Rogue Taunt Warrior
Gunther Mage 0.5 0.38 0.51 0.51
Jade Druid 0.62 0.5 0.27 0.7
Midrange Paladin 0.57 0.63 0.51 0.68
Evolve Shaman 0.45 0.53 0.54 0.41

 

Match win rates with each ban combination:

Decks Gunther Mage Jade Druid Quest Rogue Taunt Warrior
Gunther Mage 56% 55% 61% 53%
Jade Druid 53% 53% 52% 52%
Midrange Paladin 47% 50% 51% 46%
Evolve Shaman 55% 59% 61% 50%

 

Expected bans: Muzzy was expected to ban Quest Rogue and Neirea was expected to ban Midrange Paladin.

Actual bans: Muzzy banned Gunther Mage and Neirea banned Midrange Paladin.

Expected winner: Neirea at 53%

Games:

Evolve Shaman loses to Jade Druid

Gunther Mage loses to Quest Rogue

Jade Druid wins against Taunt Warrior

Evolve Shaman loses to Taunt Warrior

Muzzy 1 – Neirea 3.

Group B, round 1: Hoej vs Kranich

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Aggro Druid Midrange Paladin Quest Rogue Secret Mage
Midrange Paladin 0.39 0.5 0.51 0.55
Pirate Warrior 0.39 0.62 0.65 0.53
Quest Rogue 0.33 0.49 0.5 0.43
Evolve Shaman 0.55 0.54 0.54 0.55

 

Match win rates with each ban combination:

Decks Aggro Druid Midrange Paladin Quest Rogue Secret Mage
Midrange Paladin 57% 49% 48% 53%
Pirate Warrior 52% 47% 46% 47%
Quest Rogue 60% 54% 53% 54%
Evolve Shaman 55% 46% 45% 49%

 

Expected bans: Hoej was expected to ban Aggro Druid and Kranich was expected to ban Pirate Warrior.

Hoej has a dominant strategy to ban Aggro Druid, and Kranich is expected to answer this. Kranich’s other option is to ban Evolve Shaman, which is better if Hoej bans Midrange Paladin or Quest Rogue, but Hoej should have no reason to do so.

Actual bans: Hoej banned Aggro Druid and Kranich banned Evolve Shaman.

Expected winner: Hoej at 55%

Games:

Pirate Warrior wins against Secret Mage

Midrange Paladin loses to Quest Rogue

Midrange Paladin wins against Midrange Paladin

Quest Rogue wins against Secret Mage

Hoej 3 – Kranich 1.

Group B, round 1: Kuonet vs Dogggg

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Aggro Druid Murloc Paladin Quest Rogue Secret Mage
Gunther Mage 0.54 0.44 0.51 0.49
Control Paladin 0.66 0.51 0.33 0.51
Jade Druid 0.38 0.34 0.27 0.42
Taunt Warrior 0.7 0.38 0.31 0.42

 

Match win rates with each ban combination:

Decks Aggro Druid Murloc Paladin Quest Rogue Secret Mage
Gunther Mage 30% 41% 46% 39%
Control Paladin 31% 40% 42% 37%
Jade Druid 37% 53% 55% 51%
Taunt Warrior 35% 41% 44% 38%

 

Expected bans: Kuonet was expected to ban Quest Rogue and Dogggg was expected to ban Control Paladin.

Actual bans: Kuonet banned Quest Rogue and Dogggg banned Control Paladin.

Expected winner: Dogggg at 58%

Games:

Taunt Warrior wins against Murloc Paladin

Jade Druid wins against Secret Mage

Gunther Mage wins against Murloc Paladin

Three unfavorable matchups, three wins!

Kuonet 3 – Dogggg 0.

Group B, winners’ match: Hoej vs Kuonet

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Gunther Mage Control Paladin Jade Druid Taunt Warrior
Midrange Paladin 0.57 0.61 0.63 0.68
Pirate Warrior 0.54 0.45 0.52 0.5
Quest Rogue 0.49 0.67 0.73 0.69
Evolve Shaman 0.45 0.47 0.53 0.41

 

Match win rates with each ban combination:

Decks Gunther Mage Control Paladin Jade Druid Taunt Warrior
Midrange Paladin 57% 57% 52% 57%
Pirate Warrior 66% 63% 60% 63%
Quest Rogue 55% 56% 52% 55%
Evolve Shaman 68% 67% 64% 64%

 

Expected bans: Hoej was expected to ban Control Paladin and Kuonet was expected to ban Quest Rogue.

Kuonet has a dominant strategy to ban Quest Rogue, so Hoej can respond with Control Paladin. Otherwise, Gunther Mage would be slightly better.

Actual bans: Hoej banned Taunt Warrior and Kuonet banned Quest Rogue.

Expected winner: Hoej at 55%

Games:

Midrange Paladin wins against Jade Druid

Pirate Warrior loses to Jade Druid

Pirate Warrior loses to Gunther Mage

Pirate Warrior loses to Control Paladin

Hoej 1 – Kuonet 3.

Group B, losers’ match: Kranich vs Dogggg

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Aggro Druid Murloc Paladin Quest Rogue Secret Mage
Aggro Druid 0.5 0.6 0.67 0.41
Midrange Paladin 0.39 0.38 0.51 0.55
Quest Rogue 0.33 0.43 0.5 0.43
Secret Mage 0.59 0.41 0.57 0.5

 

Match win rates with each ban combination:

Decks Aggro Druid Murloc Paladin Quest Rogue Secret Mage
Aggro Druid 46% 47% 40% 42%
Midrange Paladin 51% 50% 43% 51%
Quest Rogue 53% 54% 46% 52%
Secret Mage 50% 46% 40% 46%

 

Expected bans: Kranich was expected to ban Aggro Druid or Murloc Paladin and Dogggg was expected to ban Aggro Druid.

Actual bans: Kranich banned Aggro Druid and Dogggg banned Aggro Druid.

Expected winner: Dogggg at 54%

Games:

Secret Mage wins against Quest Rogue

Quest Rogue wins against Quest Rogue

Midrange Paladin loses to Murloc Paladin

Midrange Paladin loses to Quest Rogue

Midrange Paladin wins against Secret Mage

Kranich 3 – Dogggg 2.

Group B, decider match: Hoej vs Kranich

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Aggro Druid Midrange Paladin Quest Rogue Secret Mage
Midrange Paladin 0.39 0.5 0.51 0.55
Pirate Warrior 0.39 0.62 0.65 0.53
Quest Rogue 0.33 0.49 0.5 0.43
Evolve Shaman 0.55 0.54 0.54 0.55

 

Match win rates with each ban combination:

Decks Aggro Druid Midrange Paladin Quest Rogue Secret Mage
Midrange Paladin 57% 49% 48% 53%
Pirate Warrior 52% 47% 46% 47%
Quest Rogue 60% 54% 53% 54%
Evolve Shaman 55% 46% 45% 49%

 

Expected bans: Hoej was expected to ban Aggro Druid and Kranich was expected to ban Pirate Warrior.

Hoej has a dominant strategy to ban Aggro Druid, and Kranich is expected to answer this. Kranich’s other option is to ban Evolve Shaman, which is better if Hoej bans Midrange Paladin or Quest Rogue, but Hoej should have no reason to do so. In their round 1 match, Hoej banned Aggro Druid and Kranich banned Evolve Shaman

Actual bans: Hoej banned Aggro Druid and Kranich banned Evolve Shaman.

Expected winner: Hoej at 55%

Games:

Midrange Paladin wins against Quest Rogue

Pirate Warrior wins against Secret Mage

Quest Rogue loses to Secret Mage

Quest Rogue loses to Midrange Paladin

Quest Rogue wins against Quest Rogue

Hoej 3 – Kranich 2.

Group C, round 1: Mage vs Trunks

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Gunther Mage Jade Druid Midrange Paladin Quest Rogue
Control Paladin 0.48 0.33 0.39 0.33
Freeze Mage 0.39 0.29 0.5 0.57
Quest Rogue 0.49 0.73 0.49 0.5
Evolve Shaman 0.45 0.53 0.54 0.54

 

Match win rates with each ban combination:

Decks Gunther Mage Jade Druid Midrange Paladin Quest Rogue
Control Paladin 53% 50% 49% 47%
Freeze Mage 45% 43% 46% 47%
Quest Rogue 39% 43% 37% 37%
Evolve Shaman 40% 42% 40% 40%

 

Expected bans: Mage was expected to ban Jade Druid and Trunks was expected to ban Evolve Shaman.

For Mage, Gunther Mage is the best ban against Control Paladin ban, Quest Rogue against Freeze Mage ban, and Jade Druid against Quest Rogue ban or Evolve Shaman ban.

For Trunks, Quest Rogue is the best ban except if Mage bans Jade Druid, in which case the best ban is Evolve Shaman. Trunks should therefore ban Evolve Shaman, and Mage responds with Jade Druid ban.

Actual bans: Mage banned Jade Druid and Trunks banned Quest Rogue.

Expected winner: Trunks at 57%

Games:

Control Paladin wins against Midrange Paladin

Evolve Shaman loses to Quest Rogue

Evolve Shaman wins against Midrange Paladin

Freeze Mage wins against Midrange Paladin

Mage 3 – Trunks 1.

Group C, round 1: Kolento vs DiegoDias

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Control Paladin Jade Druid Quest Rogue Taunt Warrior
Jade Druid 0.67 0.5 0.27 0.7
Quest Rogue 0.67 0.73 0.5 0.69
Taunt Warrior 0.5 0.3 0.31 0.5
Evolve Shaman 0.47 0.53 0.54 0.41

 

Match win rates with each ban combination:

Decks Control Paladin Jade Druid Quest Rogue Taunt Warrior
Jade Druid 47% 51% 53% 48%
Quest Rogue 41% 48% 50% 42%
Taunt Warrior 58% 59% 65% 58%
Evolve Shaman 50% 59% 63% 49%

 

Expected bans: Kolento was expected to ban Quest Rogue and DiegoDias was expected to ban Quest Rogue.

Actual bans: Kolento banned Quest Rogue and DiegoDias banned Quest Rogue.

Expected winner: It’s even!

Games:

Taunt Warrior loses to Jade Druid

Taunt Warrior loses to Control Paladin

Jade Druid wins against Taunt Warrior

Taunt Warrior wins against Taunt Warrior

Evolve Shaman wins against Taunt Warrior

Kolento 3 – DiegoDias 2.

Group C, winners’ match: Mage vs Kolento

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Jade Druid Quest Rogue Taunt Warrior Evolve Shaman
Control Paladin 0.33 0.33 0.5 0.53
Freeze Mage 0.29 0.57 0.42 0.63
Quest Rogue 0.73 0.5 0.69 0.46
Evolve Shaman 0.53 0.54 0.41 0.5

 

Match win rates with each ban combination:

Decks Jade Druid Quest Rogue Taunt Warrior Evolve Shaman
Control Paladin 54% 52% 55% 52%
Freeze Mage 49% 52% 48% 49%
Quest Rogue 49% 44% 45% 38%
Evolve Shaman 53% 51% 46% 44%

 

Expected bans: Mage was expected to ban Jade Druid and Kolento was expected to ban Quest Rogue or Freeze Mage.

Actual bans: Mage banned Jade Druid and Kolento banned Freeze Mage.

Expected winner: Kolento at 51%

Games:

Control Paladin loses to Taunt Warrior

Evolve Shaman wins against Quest Rogue

Quest Rogue loses to Evolve Shaman

Quest Rogue wins against Quest Rogue

Control Paladin wins against Quest Rogue

Mage 3 – Kolento 2.

Group C, losers’ match: Trunks vs DiegoDias

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Control Paladin Jade Druid Quest Rogue Taunt Warrior
Gunther Mage 0.52 0.38 0.51 0.51
Jade Druid 0.67 0.5 0.27 0.7
Midrange Paladin 0.61 0.63 0.51 0.68
Quest Rogue 0.67 0.73 0.5 0.69

 

Match win rates with each ban combination:

Decks Control Paladin Jade Druid Quest Rogue Taunt Warrior
Gunther Mage 67% 70% 77% 64%
Jade Druid 62% 64% 66% 61%
Midrange Paladin 56% 63% 66% 56%
Quest Rogue 55% 62% 64% 53%

 

Expected bans: Trunks was expected to ban Quest Rogue and DiegoDias was expected to ban Quest Rogue.

Actual bans: Trunks banned Quest Rogue and DiegoDias banned Quest Rogue.

Expected winner: Trunks at 64%

Games:

Gunther Mage wins against Control Paladin

Jade Druid wins against Jade Druid

Midrange Paladin wins against Control Paladin

Trunks 3 – DiegoDias 0.

Group C, decider match: Kolento vs Trunks

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Gunther Mage Jade Druid Midrange Paladin Quest Rogue
Jade Druid 0.62 0.5 0.37 0.27
Quest Rogue 0.49 0.73 0.49 0.5
Taunt Warrior 0.49 0.3 0.32 0.31
Evolve Shaman 0.45 0.53 0.54 0.54

 

Match win rates with each ban combination:

Decks Gunther Mage Jade Druid Midrange Paladin Quest Rogue
Jade Druid 41% 41% 45% 45%
Quest Rogue 31% 38% 40% 42%
Taunt Warrior 49% 45% 53% 55%
Evolve Shaman 33% 38% 43% 45%

 

Expected bans: Kolento was expected to ban Quest Rogue and Trunks was expected to ban Quest Rogue.

Actual bans: Kolento banned Quest Rogue and Trunks banned Quest Rogue.

Expected winner: Trunks at 58%

Games:

Evolve Shaman loses to Gunther Mage

Taunt Warrior wins against Jade Druid

Jade Druid wins against Jade Druid

Evolve Shaman wins against Jade Druid

Kolento 3 – Trunks 1.

Group D, round 1: JasonZhou vs Ant

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Aggro Druid Pirate Warrior Secret Mage Evolve Shaman
Murloc Paladin 0.4 0.43 0.59 0.43
Jade Druid 0.38 0.48 0.42 0.47
Quest Rogue 0.33 0.35 0.43 0.46
Jade Shaman 0.63 0.61 0.56 0.63

 

Match win rates with each ban combination:

Decks Aggro Druid Pirate Warrior Secret Mage Evolve Shaman
Murloc Paladin 47% 44% 44% 41%
Jade Druid 48% 48% 42% 44%
Quest Rogue 51% 49% 47% 49%
Jade Shaman 41% 38% 34% 36%

 

Expected bans: JasonZhou was expected to ban Aggro Druid and Ant was expected to ban Jade Shaman.

Actual bans: JasonZhou banned Aggro Druid and Ant banned Jade Shaman.

Expected winner: Ant at 59%

Games:

Murloc Paladin wins against Evolve Shaman

Jade Druid loses to Evolve Shaman

Jade Druid loses to Secret Mage

Jade Druid loses to Pirate Warrior

JasonZhou 1 – Ant 3.

Group D, round 1: Tredsred vs Rdu

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Aggro Druid Gunther Mage Pirate Warrior Evolve Shaman
Murloc Paladin 0.4 0.56 0.43 0.43
Pirate Warrior 0.39 0.54 0.5 0.38
Quest Rogue 0.33 0.49 0.35 0.46
Secret Mage 0.59 0.51 0.47 0.45

 

Match win rates with each ban combination:

Decks Aggro Druid Gunther Mage Pirate Warrior Evolve Shaman
Murloc Paladin 43% 37% 42% 43%
Pirate Warrior 43% 37% 44% 42%
Quest Rogue 46% 40% 45% 48%
Secret Mage 43% 33% 40% 40%

 

Expected bans: Tredsred was expected to ban Aggro Druid and Rdu was expected to ban Secret Mage.

Rdu’s Gunther Mage is a hybrid build that includes Doomsayers and Frost Novas. However, even if we treat it as a Freeze Mage, the equilibrium bans with these lineups do not change.

Actual bans: Tredsred banned Pirate Warrior and Rdu banned Murloc Paladin.

Expected winner: Rdu at 58%

Games:

Secret Mage loses to Evolve Shaman

Quest Rogue loses to Aggro Druid

Pirate Warrior loses to Gunther Mage

Tredsred 0 – Rdu 3.

Group D, winners’ match: Ant vs Rdu

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Aggro Druid Gunther Mage Pirate Warrior Evolve Shaman
Aggro Druid 0.5 0.47 0.61 0.45
Pirate Warrior 0.39 0.54 0.5 0.38
Secret Mage 0.59 0.51 0.47 0.45
Evolve Shaman 0.55 0.45 0.62 0.5

 

Match win rates with each ban combination:

Decks Aggro Druid Gunther Mage Pirate Warrior Evolve Shaman
Aggro Druid 49% 48% 47% 52%
Pirate Warrior 51% 55% 50% 56%
Secret Mage 51% 50% 44% 53%
Evolve Shaman 48% 47% 45% 52%

 

Expected bans: Ant was expected to ban Evolve Shaman and Rdu was expected to ban Evolve Shaman.

Rdu’s Gunther Mage is a hybrid build that includes Doomsayers and Frost Novas. If we treat it as a Freeze Mage, the percentages change a bit, to a point where banning it is optimal in case Rdu bans Pirate Warrior or Secret Mage. Rdu should never have an incentive to ban them though, in which case Evolve Shaman mirror bans remain the equilibrium choice for both players.

Actual bans: Ant banned Gunther Mage and Rdu banned Evolve Shaman.

Expected winner: Rdu at 53%

Games:

Secret Mage loses to Evolve Shaman

Secret Mage loses to Pirate Warrior

Secret Mage loses to Aggro Druid

Ant 0 – Rdu 3.

Group D, losers’ match: JasonZhou vs Tredsred

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Murloc Paladin Pirate Warrior Quest Rogue Secret Mage
Murloc Paladin 0.5 0.43 0.57 0.59
Jade Druid 0.34 0.48 0.27 0.42
Quest Rogue 0.43 0.35 0.5 0.43
Jade Shaman 0.54 0.61 0.28 0.56

 

Match win rates with each ban combination:

Decks Murloc Paladin Pirate Warrior Quest Rogue Secret Mage
Murloc Paladin 38% 35% 41% 36%
Jade Druid 46% 48% 48% 44%
Quest Rogue 44% 40% 48% 40%
Jade Shaman 40% 39% 39% 36%

 

Expected bans: JasonZhou was expected to ban Quest Rogue and Tredsred was expected to ban Jade Shaman.

For Tredsred, Murloc Paladin is the best ban if JasonZhou bans Murloc Paladin or Pirate Warrior, but JasonZhou has a dominant strategy to ban Quest Rogue and Tredsred is expected to respond to that.

Actual bans: JasonZhou banned Quest Rogue and Tredsred banned Murloc Paladin.

Expected winner: Tredsred at 59%

Games:

Jade Druid loses to Murloc Paladin

Jade Druid loses to Pirate Warrior

Jade Druid loses to Secret Mage

JasonZhou 0 – Tredsred 3.

Group D, decider match: Ant vs Tredsred

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Murloc Paladin Pirate Warrior Quest Rogue Secret Mage
Aggro Druid 0.6 0.61 0.67 0.41
Pirate Warrior 0.57 0.5 0.65 0.53
Secret Mage 0.41 0.47 0.57 0.5
Evolve Shaman 0.57 0.62 0.54 0.55

 

Match win rates with each ban combination:

Decks Murloc Paladin Pirate Warrior Quest Rogue Secret Mage
Aggro Druid 59% 58% 54% 58%
Pirate Warrior 59% 57% 55% 61%
Secret Mage 63% 63% 60% 67%
Evolve Shaman 59% 59% 52% 61%

 

Expected bans: Ant was expected to ban Secret Mage and Tredsred was expected to ban Aggro Druid.

Actual bans: Ant banned Pirate Warrior and Tredsred banned Pirate Warrior.

Expected winner: Ant at 57%

Games:

Secret Mage wins against Quest Rogue

Evolve Shaman wins against Secret Mage

Aggro Druid wins against Secret Mage

Ant 3 – Tredsred 0.

Quarter-final 1: CitizenNappa vs Hoej

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Midrange Paladin Pirate Warrior Quest Rogue Evolve Shaman
Aggro Druid 0.61 0.61 0.67 0.45
Pirate Warrior 0.62 0.5 0.65 0.38
Quest Rogue 0.49 0.35 0.5 0.46
Evolve Shaman 0.54 0.62 0.54 0.5

 

Match win rates with each ban combination:

Decks Midrange Paladin Pirate Warrior Quest Rogue Evolve Shaman
Aggro Druid 50% 54% 49% 56%
Pirate Warrior 53% 55% 52% 57%
Quest Rogue 60% 61% 58% 67%
Evolve Shaman 52% 58% 50% 59%

 

Expected bans: CitizenNappa was expected to ban Evolve Shaman and Hoej was expected to ban Aggro Druid.

Actual bans: CitizenNappa banned Evolve Shaman and Hoej banned Aggro Druid.

Expected winner: CitizenNappa at 56%

Games:

Evolve Shaman loses to Quest Rogue

Pirate Warrior loses to Midrange Paladin

Evolve Shaman wins against Pirate Warrior

Pirate Warrior loses to Pirate Warrior

CitizenNappa 1 – Hoej 3.

Quarter-final 2: Mage vs Ant

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Aggro Druid Pirate Warrior Secret Mage Evolve Shaman
Control Paladin 0.66 0.55 0.51 0.53
Freeze Mage 0.69 0.45 0.44 0.63
Quest Rogue 0.33 0.35 0.43 0.46
Evolve Shaman 0.55 0.62 0.55 0.5

 

Match win rates with each ban combination:

Decks Aggro Druid Pirate Warrior Secret Mage Evolve Shaman
Control Paladin 48% 50% 49% 46%
Freeze Mage 49% 49% 49% 48%
Quest Rogue 56% 62% 64% 62%
Evolve Shaman 47% 52% 51% 46%

 

Expected bans: Mage was expected to ban Pirate Warrior and Ant was expected to ban Freeze Mage.

Actual bans: Mage banned Pirate Warrior and Ant banned Freeze Mage.

Expected winner: Ant at 51%

Games:

Evolve Shaman loses to Evolve Shaman

Control Paladin loses to Secret Mage

Evolve Shaman wins against Aggro Druid

Control Paladin loses to Aggro Druid

Mage 1 – Ant 3.

Quarter-final 3: Kuonet vs Neirea

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Gunther Mage Jade Druid Quest Rogue Taunt Warrior
Gunther Mage 0.5 0.38 0.51 0.51
Control Paladin 0.48 0.33 0.33 0.5
Jade Druid 0.62 0.5 0.27 0.7
Taunt Warrior 0.49 0.3 0.31 0.5

 

Match win rates with each ban combination:

Decks Gunther Mage Jade Druid Quest Rogue Taunt Warrior
Gunther Mage 37% 46% 48% 34%
Control Paladin 41% 50% 50% 38%
Jade Druid 34% 43% 41% 33%
Taunt Warrior 42% 50% 50% 39%

 

Expected bans: Kuonet was expected to ban Jade Druid and Neirea was expected to ban Jade Druid.

For Kuonet, Jade Druid ban is only optimal if Neirea bans Jade Druid. Neirea, on the other hand, has a dominant strategy to ban Jade Druid, so Kuonet is expected to respond.

Actual bans: Kuonet banned Jade Druid and Neirea banned Jade Druid.

Expected winner: Neirea at 57%

Games:

Control Paladin loses to Gunther Mage

Gunther Mage loses to Quest Rogue

Taunt Warrior wins against Taunt Warrior

Gunther Mage loses to Taunt Warrior

Kuonet 1 – Neirea 3.

Quarter-final 4: Rdu vs Kolento

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Jade Druid Quest Rogue Taunt Warrior Evolve Shaman
Aggro Druid 0.62 0.67 0.3 0.45
Gunther Mage 0.38 0.51 0.51 0.55
Pirate Warrior 0.52 0.65 0.5 0.38
Evolve Shaman 0.53 0.54 0.41 0.5

 

Match win rates with each ban combination:

Decks Jade Druid Quest Rogue Taunt Warrior Evolve Shaman
Aggro Druid 51% 45% 52% 51%
Gunther Mage 51% 45% 59% 57%
Pirate Warrior 50% 45% 55% 50%
Evolve Shaman 52% 44% 55% 54%

 

Expected bans: Rdu was expected to ban Taunt Warrior and Kolento was expected to ban Aggro Druid.

Actual bans: Rdu banned Taunt Warrior and Kolento banned Aggro Druid.

Expected winner: Rdu at 52%

Games:

Pirate Warrior wins against Jade Druid

Gunther Mage wins against Jade Druid

Evolve Shaman loses to Evolve Shaman

Evolve Shaman loses to Jade Druid

Evolve Shaman loses to Quest Rogue

Rdu 2 – Kolento 3.

Semi-final 1: Hoej vs Ant

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Aggro Druid Pirate Warrior Secret Mage Evolve Shaman
Midrange Paladin 0.39 0.38 0.55 0.46
Pirate Warrior 0.39 0.5 0.53 0.38
Quest Rogue 0.33 0.35 0.43 0.46
Evolve Shaman 0.55 0.62 0.55 0.5

 

Match win rates with each ban combination:

Decks Aggro Druid Pirate Warrior Secret Mage Evolve Shaman
Midrange Paladin 45% 42% 40% 43%
Pirate Warrior 45% 44% 39% 41%
Quest Rogue 49% 46% 42% 49%
Evolve Shaman 41% 39% 33% 37%

 

Expected bans: Hoej was expected to ban Aggro Druid and Ant was expected to ban Evolve Shaman.

Actual bans: Hoej banned Aggro Druid and Ant banned Evolve Shaman.

Expected winner: Ant at 59%

Games:

Midrange Paladin wins against Secret Mage

Pirate Warrior wins against Evolve Shaman

Quest Rogue wins against Evolve Shaman

Hoej 3 – Ant 0.

Semi-final 2: Neirea vs Kolento

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Jade Druid Quest Rogue Taunt Warrior Evolve Shaman
Gunther Mage 0.38 0.51 0.51 0.55
Jade Druid 0.5 0.27 0.7 0.47
Quest Rogue 0.73 0.5 0.69 0.46
Taunt Warrior 0.3 0.31 0.5 0.59

 

Match win rates with each ban combination:

Decks Jade Druid Quest Rogue Taunt Warrior Evolve Shaman
Gunther Mage 53% 59% 42% 50%
Jade Druid 53% 54% 46% 46%
Quest Rogue 50% 51% 38% 41%
Taunt Warrior 55% 60% 47% 56%

 

Expected bans: Neirea was expected to ban Quest Rogue and Kolento was expected to ban Quest Rogue.

Actual bans: Neirea banned Quest Rogue and Kolento banned Gunther Mage.

Expected winner: Neirea at 59%

Games:

Quest Rogue loses to Evolve Shaman

Jade Druid loses to Taunt Warrior

Quest Rogue wins against Jade Druid

Jade Druid wins against Jade Druid

Taunt Warrior loses to Jade Druid

Neirea 2 – Kolento 3.

 Grand final: Hoej vs Kolento

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Jade Druid Quest Rogue Taunt Warrior Evolve Shaman
Midrange Paladin 0.63 0.51 0.68 0.46
Pirate Warrior 0.52 0.65 0.5 0.38
Quest Rogue 0.73 0.5 0.69 0.46
Evolve Shaman 0.53 0.54 0.41 0.5

 

Match win rates with each ban combination:

Decks Jade Druid Quest Rogue Taunt Warrior Evolve Shaman
Midrange Paladin 53% 54% 57% 61%
Pirate Warrior 56% 62% 59% 64%
Quest Rogue 53% 52% 55% 59%
Evolve Shaman 58% 62% 59% 68%

 

Expected bans: Hoej was expected to ban Evolve Shaman and Kolento was expected to ban Quest Rogue.

Actual bans: Hoej banned Taunt Warrior and Kolento banned Quest Rogue.

Expected winner: Hoej at 55%

Games:

Midrange Paladin wins against Evolve Shaman

Pirate Warrior wins against Jade Druid

Evolve Shaman wins against Evolve Shaman

Hoej 3 – Kolento 0.

 

1 thought on “Hearthstone HCT Spring Championship 2017 decks, results, and analysis”

  1. Overall a very enjoyable explanation of the tournament. For me personally as a casual player I would prefer more in depth explanations of the individual decks you highlighted, and some way to make the tables of expected win-rates at the end more accessible. Thanks for writing this post, big fan of your vids.

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