Hearthstone Copa América 2017 Summer Group Stage decks, results, and analysis

Hearthstone Copa América 2017 Summer is a multi-stage major Hearthstone tournament played in summer 2017. The tournament started with four online qualifiers of up to 1024 players each, one for global participants and three for Latin American residents only. These were followed by a 16-player group stage from which eight players qualified to the single-elimination playoffs. The prize pool of the tournament is $10,000.

In this post, I take a look at the decks and results of the group stage that was played on the 15th and 16th July, including class distribution, archetypes, and archetype performance.

Results

The group stage was played in a best-of-five Conquest format with one ban. The 16 players were divided into four double-elimination groups, the first two from each proceeding to the playoffs.

Group stage results:

The playoff bracket thus looks like this:

Playoffs will take place on the 29th and 30th July with new decks!

Class distribution in the top 16

The decklists of the group stages were published on Blizzard’s Facebook page.

Classes in top-16 from the most popular to the least popular:

  • Paladin: 13
  • Shaman: 13
  • Mage: 13
  • Druid: 11
  • Warrior: 11
  • Rogue: 3
  • Priest: 0
  • Hunter: 0
  • Warlock: Zero. Zippo. Nada. Zilch.

Warlock remains dead as expected, and this time there were no Priests and no Hunters either.

Five classes dominated the landscape: Paladin, Shaman, Mage, Druid, and Warrior. A couple of enthusiasts brought Rogue, but overall the class was still suffering from the collapse cause by the Quest Rogue nerf.

Archetype distribution by class and performance

The competition between aggro and control lineups continues. This time, the meta was heavily control-oriented with eight Jade Druids, seven Taunt Warriors, and six Control Paladins in the lineups of the 16 players. If we add Gunther Mages (5) and Freeze Mages (5) together, the most dominant control class was Mage, brought by ten players.

Aggro lineups were less common with four Pirate Warriors leading the way followed by three Aggro Druids and three Secret Mages.

The one thing almost all players could agree upon was that Evolve Shaman fits any lineup. It was part of aggro lineups, part of anti-control lineups, and part of control lineups. Overall, 12 of the 16 players brought it. Because why not. With a 10-8 record during the group stage, the deck showed once again that you can prepare for it, but you cannot completely shut it down.

As for bans, the most banned archetype was Jade Druid (7 times). In a heavy control meta, this is no surprise, as Jade Druid can really punish control decks. The most banned class, however, was Mage at 11 times, as all of its archetypes were ban targets.

Control decks tended to go more and more towards the greedy end. If it’s a Control Paladin, why not go all the way to N’Zoth? Five out of six did. Even that sixth one was all prepared to beat Freeze Mage by running two copies of Forbidden Healing, a tech choice seen in one of the N’Zoth decks as well.

Freeze Mage indeed was hurt for the first time in recent weeks in this tournament, where it had to face Jade Druids, Taunt Warriors, and anti-mage teched Control Paladins. Freeze Mage ended with a 3-6 record, which is not that bad considering the wrangler it had to go through. Only one Freeze Mage player out of five made it to the playoffs, and that was a hybrid build with Medivh and Eater of Secrets (still sporting the full freeze package). In the rock-paper-scissors world of Hearthstone, no deck is safe from the winds of change.

Archetype distribution and performance excluding mirror matches:

Paladin

  • 6 Control Paladin (7-6, banned 3 times) – 3 advanced to top-8
  • 2 UK Paladin (2-2, banned 1 time) – 1 advanced to top-8
  • 5 Midrange Paladins (4-5, banned 3 times) – 3 advanced to top-8

Warrior

  • 4 Pirate Warriors (3-6) – 2 advanced to top-8
  • 7 Taunt Warriors (7-7, banned 1 time) – 3 advanced to top-8

Druid

  • 3 Aggro Druids (3-4) – 2 advanced to top-8
  • 8 Jade Druids (5-3, banned 7 times) – 4 advanced to top-8

Mage

  • 5 Gunther Mages (3-3, banned 5 times) – 3 advanced to top-8
  • 3 Secret Mages (0-2, banned 2 time) – 1 advanced to top-8
  • 5 Freeze Mages (3-6, banned 4 times) – 1 advanced to top-8

Rogue

  • 3 Miracle Rogues (2-0, banned 2 times) – 2 advanced to top-8

Shaman

  • 12 Evolve Shamans (10-8, banned 4 times) – 6 advanced to top-8
  • 1 Jade Shaman (3-0) – 1 advanced to top-8

Building a lineup for the expected meta

Two players demonstrated a great read of the meta: Heisenberg and Pinche arrived at the show with anti-control lineups, both sporting Jade Druid and Midrange Paladin, which Pinche chose to support with Miracle Rogue and Evolve Shaman (after all, it fits any lineup), and Heisenberg in turn brought Taunt Warrior and the only off-meta deck of the tournament, a Spirit Echo Jade Shaman. Miracle Rogue (2-0) and Jade Shaman (3-0) were the best-performing decks of the tournament.

Another great meta read was from Loxodontes, who was all set to prey on Jade Druid. How would you like to face Evolve Shaman, Miracle Rogue, UK Paladin, and Aggro Druid if playing some Jades? In fact, Loxodontes beat Heisenberg as Heisenberg was unable to find a win with Jade Druid, but Heisenberg advanced nonetheless as the second player in the group.

Deck spotlights

Heisenberg’s Jade Shaman

Heisenberg brought the only truly off-meta deck of the group stage: Jade Shaman. In some ways, it is a bit old-fashioned list, as it is a pure Jade Shaman, not a Jade Elemental build, so it does not take advantage of Jade Spirit’s recent affiliation with the Elemental tribe.

The deck includes almost all Jade generators available to Shaman, only one copy of Jade Chieftain is missing. Therefore, full-power Jades with the deck reach 9/9 stats. However, the deck also includes two copies of Spirit Echo, so if it is able to Echo back any Jade generators, that statline can be improved further.

One of the favorite plays with the deck is playing free Things from Below into a Spirit Echo, getting them back when they die to be played for free again. The deck can outvalue many control decks and apply long-lasting pressure.

One of the issues with Jade Shaman against slow Mage decks has been that while there is plenty of healing available, and in theory you can Spirit Echo your healing minions back to your hand for even more, in practice it can be difficult to kill off minions against Mage so you never get that extra healing. The inclusion of Hallazeal and Volcano in this build solve both issues: you can suicide your board if needed, and heal while doing so.

The deck also has quite good defensive prowess, not quite Elemental Shaman level, but it can take on many aggro decks as well.

Deck code: AAECAaoIBPAHwq4C5rsClL0CDYEE/gX7qgKgtgLdugKHvALPvALRvAL2vQLHwQKbwgKHxAKXxwIA

See it in action:

Jade Shaman vs Gunther Mage: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/159329520?t=45m52s

Jade Shaman vs UK Paladin: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/159329520?t=03h03m50s

Jade Shaman vs Taunt Warrior: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/159329520?t=04h14m00s

Evolve Shaman

Evolve Shaman consists of a few variations right now, all of them usually just a card or two apart. There are five cards that change in number:

  • Devolve: Standard build is two, some builds cut one for a Sea Giant.
  • Stonehill Defender: The old standard build was two, but nowadays one is often cut for Barnes, sometimes for Sea Giant.
  • Barnes: Often replaces one Stonehill Defender.
  • Mana Tide Totem: Standard build is two, some builds cut one for a Sea Giant.
  • Sea Giant: Sometimes replaces one Devolve, sometimes one Stonehill Defender, sometimes one Mana Tide Totem. Sometimes two of them, so that there are two Sea Giants in the deck.

Barnes is a potential improvement to the list, giving more tempo than Stonehill Defender while also synergizing well with Evolve. Sea Giant is more of a tech choice, and it is especially good in the mirror match.

At Copa América, the distribution was as follows:

  • 5 Standard lists
  • 3 Stonehill Defender, Sea Giant
  • 3 Stonehill Defender, Barnes
  • 1 Mana Tide Totem, Sea Giant

This was a bit more old-fashioned than other tournaments as of late. For example, at Titanar, six out of 10 Evolve Shamans were running the Barnes variant.

At Dreamhack Valencia, Torlk had cut Mana Tide Totem in favor of Sea Giant. Here, we saw Loxodontes make the same move. It is the newest variation I have seen, and it remains to be seen if it can gain ground.

Deck code: AAECAaoIBNMBgQSRvAKUvQIN5QfwB5MJ+qoC+6oCoLYCh7wC0bwC9r0C+b8CkcECm8IC68ICAA==

See it in action:

Evolve Shaman vs Midrange Paladin: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/159329520?t=02h28m10s

Evolve Shaman vs Midrange Paladin: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/159329520?t=03h20m09s

CelticGuard’s Hybrid Freeze Mage

There are plenty of Freeze Mage and Gunther Mage hybrids around, and CelticGuard’s build is near the Freeze Mage end of the spectrum. It grabs five cards from Gunther Mage: two copies of Mana Wyrm, two copies of Firelands Portal, and Medivh the Guardian.

However, it also keeps almost all the stall tools from Freeze Mage: two copies of Doomsayer, two copies of Frost Nova, two copies of Blizzard, and one copy of Ice Barrier. It does lose some area-of-effect capabilities, as it has neither Volcanic Potion nor Flamestrike to clear the board with.

It was the only Freeze Mage deck to make it through the group stage.

Deck code: AAECAY0WBsUE7QS/CPsMiK8CobcCDIoBwAG7ApUDyQOrBMsElgWjtgLXtgLBwQKYxAIA

See it in action:

Freeze Mage vs Control Paladin: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/159590950?t=08h21m12s

Loxodontes’ Leeroy Miracle Rogue

It has seemed as if all Miracle Rogue decks are running Arcane Giants now. At Dreamhack Valencia, even Stancifka, who had brought his fast variant to a number of tournaments during Journey to Un’Goro, had switched over to running Giants.

Therefore, it was refreshing to once again have a Leeroy variant see the light of day, or at least the dark of a tournament cave.

I had my doubts about featuring the deck despite my excitement. There is this one small matter, you see. The deck was not actually played in the tournament for a single game, even though Loxodantes went 2-0 in matches – it got banned both times.

Had it been played, we would have seen a bit faster Miracle Rogue, one that chips in damage with minions and bursts the opponent down with Cold Bloods and Eviscerates.

Deck code: AAECAaIHCLICrwTtBYUIkbwCyb8C+MECgsICC7QBjAKbBYgHpAfdCIYJkrYC9bsCgcICm8gCAA==

See it in action: Unfortunately, this deck is so scary that all opponents banned it. No one has been able to record footage of it. Handle with care.

Pinche’s (Muzzy’s) Giants Miracle Rogue

If you’re looking for a Miracle Rogue deck that packs a ton of punch, Muzzy’s list from the Americas Spring Playoffs still fits the bill. Going on a hunt against control decks, it is no wonder Pinche chose to bring this variant.

It is not a fast variant, opting to go for two Arcane Giants and a Questing Adventurer for some real big threats. It still runs the entire suite of burgling cards at two Swashburglars, two Hallucinations, and Shaku, the Collector, so it is a very threat-dense deck as far as Rogue decks go. Add in two Mimic Pods to the mix, and you have a deck that does not run out of juice easily.

What it wins in threats, it loses in early-game consistency. With only single copies of Razorpetal Lasher and SI:7 Agent, the deck is vulnerable to aggro if it does not hit the right cards.

Deck code: AAECAaIHCLIC7QWXBt0IkbwCyb8C+MECgsICC7QBmwWIB6QHhgmCtAKStgL1uwL8wQKBwgKbyAIA

See it in action:

Miracle Rogue vs Control Paladin: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/159590950?t=02h20m29s

Appendix 1: Decks by player

Empanizado:

  • Gunther Mage (Pyros, Counterspell, Gluttonous Ooze, Kabal Chemist, Blizzard)
  • Taunt Warrior (2xDirty Rat, Harrison Jones)
  • N’Zoth Control Paladin (Gluttonous Ooze, Infested Tauren)
  • Jade Druid (Gluttonous Ooze, Yogg-Saron)

K3nny:

  • Control Paladin (2xForbidden Healing, 2xRallying Blade, Truesilver Champion, Harrison Jones)
  • Freeze Mage (Archmage Antonidas, Pyroblast)
  • Taunt Warrior (Kolento’s list)
  • Evolve Shaman

DonPreslav:

  • Jade Druid (Gluttonous Ooze, Yogg-Saron)
  • Hybrid Freeze Mage (2xMana Wyrm, Ice Barrier, Blizzard, 2xFirelands Portal, Medivh)
  • Evolve Shaman (Stonehill Defender, Sea Giant)
  • Taunt Warrior (Shield Block)

LiberiFatali:

  • Jade Druid (Doomsayer, Yogg-Saron)
  • Taunt Warrior (Dirty Rat)
  • Gunther Mage (Sorcerer’s Apprentice, Bloodmage Thalnos, Ice Barrier, 2xKabal Courier, Volcanic Potion, no Meteor)
  • Midrange Murloc Paladin (2xHungry Crab, Equality, Gluttonous Ooze, 2xAldor Peacekeeper, 1xGentle Megasaur, Ivory Knight, Ragnaros Lightlord)

Joaquin:

  • Midrange Murloc Paladin (Equality, 2xAldor Peacekeeper, Ragnaros Lightlord)
  • Secret Mage (2xCounterspell, Ice Block, Mirror Entity, Cabalist’s Tome, Yogg-Saron)
  • Pirate Warrior (Spellbreaker, 2xMortal Strike)
  • Evolve Shaman

Pinche:

  • Evolve Shaman (Stonehill Defender, Barnes)
  • Miracle Rogue (2xArcane Giant, Questing Adventurer, Shaku, 2xMimic Pod – Muzzy’s list)
  • Midrange Murloc Paladin (2xGrimscale Chum, 2xBlessing of Kings, Onyxia)
  • Jade Druid (Gluttonous Ooze, Yogg-Saron)

Rala:

  • Jade Druid (Gluttonous Ooze, Tar Creeper, 1xJade Spirit, Yogg-Saron)
  • Evolve Shaman (Stonehill Defender, Sea Giant)
  • N’Zoth Control Paladin (Golakka Crawler, Gluttonous Ooze, Ivory Knight)
  • Hybrid Freeze Mage (Eater of Secrets, 1xBlizzard, Medivh, 2xFirelands Portal – no Mana Wyrms)

CelticGuard:

  • Jade Druid (Feral Rage, Gluttonous Ooze, Tar Creeper, Yogg-Saron)
  • Evolve Shaman
  • N’Zoth Control Paladin (2xForbidden Healing)
  • Hybrid Freeze Mage (2xMana Wyrm, Ice Barrier, Eater of Secrets, 2xBlizzard, 2xFirelands Portal, Medivh – no Volcanic Potion)

Heisenberg:

  • Midrange Murloc Paladin (2xBluegill Warrior, Deathwing)
  • Jade Shaman (Flametongue Totem, 2xSpirit Echo, 2xHot Spring Guardian, Hallazeal, 2xVolcano, Jade Chieftain)
  • Taunt Warrior (2xDirty Rat)
  • Jade Druid (Wild Pyromancer, Yogg-Saron)

Loxodontes:

  • Evolve Shaman (Mana Tide Totem, Sea Giant)
  • Miracle Rogue (2xCold Blood, Shaku, Violet Teacher, Leeroy Jenkins)
  • UK Paladin (Blessing of Kings, Tirion)
  • Aggro Druid (2xHungry Crab, 2xGolakka Crawler, Swipe, 2xDruid of the Claw – no Bittertide Hydra)

Perna:

  • Pirate Warrior (Spellbreaker, Mortal Strike)
  • Evolve Shaman (Stonehill Defender, Barnes)
  • Gunther Mage (2xDoomsayer+2xFrost Nova, Counterspell, Volcanic Potion, no Meteor)
  • Aggro Druid (Hungry Crab, 2xGolakka Crawler, Druid of the Claw)

Satancurseyo:

  • Miracle Rogue (2xArcane Giant, Sap, Mimic Pod, SI:7 Agent)
  • Pirate Warrior (Fire Fly, Spellbreaker, Mortal Strike)
  • Evolve Shaman
  • Secret Mage (Pyros, 2xCounterspell, Ice Block, Mirror Entity, Pyroblast)

Tuliowz:

  • Evolve Shaman
  • Aggro Druid (2xArgent Squire, 2xDire Wolf Alpha, Swipe)
  • Secret Mage (Pyros, 2xCounterspell, 2xMirror Entity, Yogg-Saron)
  • UK Paladin (Blessing of Kings, Consecration)

Nandieb:

  • Evolve Shaman (Stonehill Defender, Sea Giant)
  • Midrange Murloc Paladin (Grimscale Chum, Stonehill Defender, Blessing of Kings, Dread Corsair, Patches, Consecration, Deathwing – UK Paladin hybrid?)
  • Hybrid Freeze Mage (2xMana Wyrm, Ice Barrier, 2xBlizzard, Archmage Antonidas)
  • Pirate Warrior (Spellbreaker, Mortal Strike, Bittertide Hydra)

Uchihasaske:

  • Taunt Warrior (2xDirty Rat, Shield Block, Harrison Jones)
  • Gunther Mage (Mana Wyrm, 2xDoomsayer+2xFrost Nova, Counterspell, Volcanic Potion, Eater of Secrets – no Meteor)
  • N’Zoth Control Paladin (Aldor Peacekeeper, Infested Tauren, Harrison Jones)
  • Jade Druid (Gluttonous Ooze, Tar Creeper)

SeXaR:

  • Evolve Shaman (Stonehill Defender, Barnes)
  • Gunther Mage (2xDoomsayer+2xFrost Nova, Counterspell, Gluttonous Ooze, Volcanic Potion)
  • Taunt Warrior (2xDirty Rat, Gluttonous Ooze)
  • N’Zoth Control Paladin (Loot Hoarder, Gluttonous Ooze)

Appendix 2: Copa America 2017 Summer Group Stage matches

Raw data on matches, lineups, and bans.

Group A, round 1: Uchihasaske vs Heisenberg

Uchihasaske: Taunt Warrior, Gunther Mage, N’Zoth Control Paladin, Jade Druid

Heisenberg: Midrange Murloc Paladin, Jade Shaman, Taunt Warrior, Jade Druid

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Midrange Paladin Jade Shaman (estimated) Taunt Warrior Jade Druid
Taunt Warrior 0.32 0.57 0.5 0.3
Gunther Mage 0.43 0.64 0.51 0.38
Control Paladin 0.39 0.37 0.5 0.33
Jade Druid 0.37 0.58 0.7 0.5

 

Expected match winrates for each ban combination:

Decks Midrange Paladin Jade Shaman Taunt Warrior Jade Druid
Taunt Warrior 50% 43% 39% 50%
Gunther Mage 47% 39% 35% 47%
Control Paladin 55% 41% 44% 55%
Jade Druid 43% 34% 35% 45%

 

Bans: Uchihasaske banned Jade Druid and Heisenberg banned Jade Druid.

With control lineups on both sides, Jade Druid bans were exactly as expected.

Expected winner: Heisenberg at 55%

Games:

Gunther Mage loses to Jade Shaman

Taunt Warrior loses to Midrange Paladin

Taunt Warrior wins against Taunt Warrior

Control Paladin loses to Taunt Warrior

Uchihasaske 1 – Heisenberg 3.

Group A, round 1: LiberiFatali vs Loxodontes

LiberiFatali: Jade Druid, Taunt Warrior, Gunther Mage, Midrange Murloc Paladin

Loxodontes: Evolve Shaman, Miracle Rogue, UK Paladin, Aggro Druid

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Evolve Shaman Miracle Rogue UK Murloc Paladin Aggro Druid
Jade Druid 0.47 0.41 0.34 0.38
Taunt Warrior 0.59 0.52 0.38 0.7
Gunther Mage 0.55 0.59 0.44 0.54
Midrange Paladin 0.46 0.5 0.38 0.39

 

Expected match winrates for each ban combination:

Decks Evolve Shaman Miracle Rogue UK Murloc Paladin Aggro Druid
Jade Druid 49% 48% 56% 49%
Taunt Warrior 39% 38% 45% 43%
Gunther Mage 39% 41% 47% 41%
Midrange Paladin 45% 48% 53% 46%

 

Bans: LiberiFatali banned Miracle Rogue and Loxodontes banned Gunther Mage.

I would have expected a Murloc Paladin ban from LiberiFatali, but he did have two Hungry Crabs in his Midrange Paladin, improving that matchup. An Aggro Druid ban would have also been an attractive option. For Loxodontes, there were two options: Taunt Warrior or Gunther Mage, depending on what he expects LiberiFatali to ban.

Expected winner: Loxodontes at 59%

Games:

Midrange Paladin loses to Aggro Druid

Midrange Paladin loses to Evolve Shaman

Midrange Paladin loses to UK Paladin

LiberiFatali 0 – Loxodontes 3.

Group A, winners’ match: Heisenberg vs Loxodontes

Heisenberg: Midrange Murloc Paladin, Jade Shaman, Taunt Warrior, Jade Druid

Loxodontes: Evolve Shaman, Miracle Rogue, UK Paladin, Aggro Druid

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Evolve Shaman Miracle Rogue UK Murloc Paladin Aggro Druid
Midrange Paladin 0.46 0.5 0.38 0.39
Jade Shaman (estimated) 0.44 0.54 0.45 0.54
Taunt Warrior 0.59 0.52 0.38 0.7
Jade Druid 0.47 0.41 0.34 0.38

 

Expected match winrates for each ban combination:

Decks Evolve Shaman Miracle Rogue UK Murloc Paladin Aggro Druid
Midrange Paladin 44% 45% 50% 43%
Jade Shaman 39% 41% 47% 41%
Taunt Warrior 38% 36% 42% 40%
Jade Druid 48% 46% 53% 46%

 

Bans: Heisenberg banned Miracle Rogue and Loxodontes banned Taunt Warrior.

Loxodontes’ Taunt Warrior ban came as no surprise, as he had an aggressive lineup. Which one of the aggressive decks should Heisenberg ban in response? Jade Shaman winrates are difficult to assess, as there is not enough data available. I would have still expected UK Paladin ban over Rogue, especially with no anti-Pirate or anti-Murloc techs in the decks.

Expected winner: Loxodontes at 64%

Games:

Jade Shaman wins against UK Paladin

Midrange Paladin loses to Aggro Druid

Midrange Paladin loses to Evolve Shaman

Midrange Paladin wins against UK Paladin

Jade Druid loses to UK Paladin

Heisenberg 2 – Loxodontes 3.

Group A, losers’ match: Uchihasaske vs LiberiFatali

Uchihasaske: Taunt Warrior, Gunther Mage, N’Zoth Control Paladin, Jade Druid

LiberiFatali: Jade Druid, Taunt Warrior, Gunther Mage, Midrange Murloc Paladin

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Jade Druid Taunt Warrior Gunther Mage Midrange Paladin
Taunt Warrior 0.3 0.5 0.49 0.32
Gunther Mage 0.38 0.51 0.5 0.43
Control Paladin 0.33 0.5 0.48 0.39
Jade Druid 0.5 0.7 0.62 0.37

 

Expected match winrates for each ban combination:

Decks Jade Druid Taunt Warrior Gunther Mage Midrange Paladin
Taunt Warrior 51% 40% 43% 50%
Gunther Mage 48% 36% 39% 48%
Control Paladin 50% 39% 41% 50%
Jade Druid 43% 33% 34% 41%

 

Bans: Uchihasaske banned ? and LiberiFatali banned ?.

Expected winner:

Games:

Not streamed.

Uchihasaske 3 – LiberiFatali 1.

Group A, decider match: Heisenberg vs Uchihasaske

Heisenberg: Midrange Murloc Paladin, Jade Shaman, Taunt Warrior, Jade Druid

Uchihasaske: Taunt Warrior, Gunther Mage, N’Zoth Control Paladin, Jade Druid

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Taunt Warrior Gunther Mage Control Paladin Jade Druid
Midrange Paladin 0.68 0.57 0.61 0.63
Jade Shaman (estimated) 0.43 0.36 0.63 0.42
Taunt Warrior 0.5 0.49 0.5 0.3
Jade Druid 0.7 0.62 0.67 0.5

 

Expected match winrates for each ban combination:

Decks Taunt Warrior Gunther Mage Control Paladin Jade Druid
Midrange Paladin 50% 53% 45% 57%
Jade Shaman (estimated) 57% 61% 59% 66%
Taunt Warrior 61% 65% 56% 65%
Jade Druid 50% 53% 45% 55%

 

Bans: Heisenberg banned Jade Druid and Uchihasaske banned Jade Druid.

With control lineups, completely expected Jade Druid bans on both sides.

Expected winner: Heisenberg at 55%

Games:

Jade Shaman wins against Taunt Warrior

Midrange Paladin wins against Gunther Mage

Taunt Warrior wins against Gunther Mage

Heisenberg 3 – Uchihasaske 0.

Group B, round 1: DonPreslav vs K3nny

DonPreslav: Jade Druid, Hybrid Freeze Mage, Evolve Shaman, Taunt Warrior

K3nny: Control Paladin, Freeze Mage, Taunt Warrior, Evolve Shaman

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Control Paladin Freeze Mage Taunt Warrior Evolve Shaman
Jade Druid 0.67 0.71 0.7 0.47
Freeze Mage 0.49 0.5 0.42 0.63
Evolve Shaman 0.47 0.38 0.41 0.5
Taunt Warrior 0.5 0.58 0.5 0.59

 

Expected match winrates for each ban combination:

Decks Control Paladin Freeze Mage Taunt Warrior Evolve Shaman
Jade Druid 50% 51% 53% 44%
Freeze Mage 55% 55% 56% 55%
Evolve Shaman 62% 59% 63% 60%
Taunt Warrior 53% 54% 55% 52%

 

Bans: DonPreslav banned Control Paladin and K3nny banned Jade Druid.

K3nny had a dominant strategy to ban Jade Druid – typical for control lineups. DonPreslav chose to go with a Control Paladin ban in response, turning the match into a mirror. There would have been some merit to removing one of the other control decks as well, although margins were small.

Expected winner: It’s even!

Games:

Taunt Warrior loses to Taunt Warrior

Taunt Warrior wins against Freeze Mage

Freeze Mage loses to Freeze Mage

Freeze Mage wins against Evolve Shaman

Evolve Shaman loses to Evolve Shaman

DonPreslav 2 – K3nny 3.

Group B, round 1: Joaquin vs SeXaR

Joaquin: Midrange Murloc Paladin, Secret Mage, Pirate Warrior, Evolve Shaman

SeXaR: Evolve Shaman, Gunther Mage, Taunt Warrior, N’Zoth Control Paladin

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Evolve Shaman Gunther Mage Taunt Warrior Control Paladin
Midrange Paladin 0.46 0.57 0.68 0.61
Secret Mage 0.45 0.51 0.58 0.49
Pirate Warrior 0.38 0.54 0.5 0.45
Evolve Shaman 0.5 0.45 0.41 0.47

 

Expected match winrates for each ban combination:

Decks Evolve Shaman Gunther Mage Taunt Warrior Control Paladin
Midrange Paladin 48% 44% 45% 46%
Secret Mage 52% 48% 48% 49%
Pirate Warrior 54% 53% 50% 52%
Evolve Shaman 58% 52% 49% 54%

 

Bans: Joaquin banned Gunther Mage and SeXaR banned Secret Mage.

I am quite surprised at the bans, actually. I fully expected Joaquin to ban Evolve Shaman and SeXaR to ban Midrange Paladin.

SeXaR’s Gunther Mage has Doomsayer+Frost Nova combo, so one could argue that its winrates are somewhere between Gunther Mage and Freeze Mage (better against Midrange Paladin and Evolve Shaman, two board-centric decks, than shown in the table), but even that should not change the winrates so much that Joaquin’s Evolve Shaman ban was in doubt.

Likewise for SeXaR, Midrange Paladin is just so strong against both Taunt Warrior and Control Paladin that is should be the clear ban.

Expected winner: SeXaR at 52%

Games:

Evolve Shaman loses to Taunt Warrior

Evolve Shaman loses to Control Paladin

Evolve Shaman loses to Evolve Shaman

Joaquin 0 – SeXaR 3.

Group B, winners’ match: K3nny vs SeXaR

K3nny: Control Paladin, Freeze Mage, Taunt Warrior, Evolve Shaman

SeXaR: Evolve Shaman, Gunther Mage, Taunt Warrior, N’Zoth Control Paladin

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Evolve Shaman Gunther Mage Taunt Warrior Control Paladin
Control Paladin 0.53 0.48 0.5 0.5
Freeze Mage 0.63 0.39 0.42 0.49
Taunt Warrior 0.59 0.49 0.5 0.5
Evolve Shaman 0.5 0.45 0.41 0.47

 

Expected match winrates for each ban combination:

Decks Evolve Shaman Gunther Mage Taunt Warrior Control Paladin
Control Paladin 42% 51% 51% 48%
Freeze Mage 46% 50% 50% 49%
Taunt Warrior 42% 49% 49% 47%
Evolve Shaman 45% 54% 53% 52%

 

Bans: K3nny banned Control Paladin and SeXaR banned Control Paladin.

Both players chose to ban Control Paladin. I am slightly surprised by this, as I think there could have been better ban targets. K3nny, for example, could have banned Gunther Mage to relieve some pressure from his Freeze Mage. Likewise, a Taunt Warrior ban from SeXaR could have given his Evolve Shaman a bit more room to breathe.

Expected winner SeXaR at 52%

Games:

Taunt Warrior wins against Taunt Warrior

Evolve Shaman loses to Taunt Warrior

Freeze Mage loses to Gunther Mage

Freeze Mage loses to Evolve Shaman

K3nny 1 – SeXaR 3.

Group B, losers’ match: DonPreslav vs Joaquin

DonPreslav: Jade Druid, Hybrid Freeze Mage, Evolve Shaman, Taunt Warrior

Joaquin: Midrange Murloc Paladin, Secret Mage, Pirate Warrior, Evolve Shaman

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Midrange Paladin Secret Mage Pirate Warrior Evolve Shaman
Jade Druid 0.37 0.42 0.48 0.47
Freeze Mage 0.5 0.44 0.45 0.63
Evolve Shaman 0.54 0.55 0.62 0.5
Taunt Warrior 0.32 0.42 0.5 0.59

 

Expected match winrates for each ban combination:

Decks Midrange Paladin Secret Mage Pirate Warrior Evolve Shaman
Jade Druid 55% 54% 50% 46%
Freeze Mage 51% 48% 43% 44%
Evolve Shaman 49% 47% 44% 38%
Taunt Warrior 51% 51% 48% 46%

 

Bans: DonPreslav banned ? and Joaquin banned ?.

Expected winner:

Games:

Not streamed.

DonPreslav 1 – Joaquin 3.

Group B, decider match: K3nny vs Joaquin

K3nny: Control Paladin, Freeze Mage, Taunt Warrior, Evolve Shaman

Joaquin: Midrange Murloc Paladin, Secret Mage, Pirate Warrior, Evolve Shaman

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Midrange Paladin Secret Mage Pirate Warrior Evolve Shaman
Control Paladin 0.39 0.51 0.55 0.53
Freeze Mage 0.5 0.44 0.45 0.63
Taunt Warrior 0.32 0.42 0.5 0.59
Evolve Shaman 0.54 0.55 0.62 0.5

 

Expected match winrates for each ban combination:

Decks Midrange Paladin Secret Mage Pirate Warrior Evolve Shaman
Control Paladin 55% 54% 50% 46%
Freeze Mage 56% 52% 47% 48%
Taunt Warrior 56% 55% 52% 51%
Evolve Shaman 53% 51% 48% 41%

 

Bans: K3nny banned Midrange Paladin and Joaquin banned Freeze Mage.

K3nny had a dominant strategy to ban Midrange Paladin, as it can punish control decks quite heavily. Joaquin was expected to respond with Evolve Shaman ban, but chose to go with Freeze Mage instead.

Expected winner: K3nny at 56%

Games:

Taunt Warrior loses to Pirate Warrior

K3nny picked the banned deck and forfeited game two.

Taunt Warrior loses to Evolve Shaman

K3nny 0 – Joaquin 3.

Group C, round 1: Nandieb vs Pinche

Nandieb: Evolve Shaman, Midrange Murloc Paladin, Hybrid Freeze Mage, Pirate Warrior

Pinche: Evolve Shaman, Miracle Rogue, Midrange Murloc Paladin, Jade Druid

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Evolve Shaman Miracle Rogue Midrange Paladin Jade Druid
Evolve Shaman 0.5 0.6 0.54 0.53
Midrange Paladin 0.46 0.5 0.5 0.63
Freeze Mage 0.63 0.65 0.5 0.29
Pirate Warrior 0.38 0.61 0.62 0.52

 

Expected match winrates for each ban combination:

Decks Evolve Shaman Miracle Rogue Midrange Paladin Jade Druid
Evolve Shaman 57% 51% 54% 57%
Midrange Paladin 58% 51% 56% 61%
Freeze Mage 61% 54% 56% 55%
Pirate Warrior 55% 52% 57% 58%

 

Bans: Nandieb banned Evolve Shaman and Pinche banned Evolve Shaman.

For Nandieb, it was a choice between Evolve Shaman and Jade Druid: Evolve Shaman being better in case of Freeze Mage ban, even in case of Evolve Shaman ban, and worse in the other two cases. Pinche could choose between Evolve Shaman and Pirate Warrior. All four combinations were quite close to each other.

Expected winner: Nandieb at 57%

Games:

Midrange Paladin loses to Midrange Paladin

Midrange Paladin wins against Jade Druid

Pirate Warrior loses to Jade Druid

Pirate Warrior loses to Miracle Rogue

Nandieb 1 – Pinche 3.

Group C, round 1: Empanizado vs Satancurseyo

Empanizado: Gunther Mage, Taunt Warrior, N’Zoth Control Paladin, Jade Druid

Satancurseyo: Miracle Rogue, Pirate Warrior, Evolve Shaman, Secret Mage

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Miracle Rogue Pirate Warrior Evolve Shaman Secret Mage
Gunther Mage 0.59 0.46 0.55 0.49
Taunt Warrior 0.52 0.5 0.59 0.42
Control Paladin 0.45 0.55 0.53 0.51
Jade Druid 0.41 0.48 0.47 0.42

 

Expected match winrates for each ban combination:

Decks Miracle Rogue Pirate Warrior Evolve Shaman Secret Mage
Gunther Mage 49% 46% 45% 50%
Taunt Warrior 49% 48% 47% 50%
Control Paladin 48% 49% 46% 51%
Jade Druid 52% 53% 50% 55%

 

Bans: Empanizado banned Secret Mage and Satancurseyo banned Gunther Mage.

Both bans seem optimal, neither player can improve their position by changing their ban unilaterally.

Expected winner: It’s even!

Games:

Control Paladin wins against Evolve Shaman

Taunt Warrior wins against Pirate Warrior

Jade Druid wins against Pirate Warrior

Empanizado 3 – Satancurseyo 0.

Group C, winners’ match: Empanizado vs Pinche

Empanizado: Gunther Mage, Taunt Warrior, N’Zoth Control Paladin, Jade Druid

Pinche: Evolve Shaman, Miracle Rogue, Midrange Murloc Paladin, Jade Druid

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Evolve Shaman Miracle Rogue Midrange Paladin Jade Druid
Gunther Mage 0.55 0.59 0.43 0.38
Taunt Warrior 0.59 0.52 0.32 0.3
Control Paladin 0.53 0.45 0.39 0.33
Jade Druid 0.47 0.41 0.37 0.5

 

Expected match winrates for each ban combination:

Decks Evolve Shaman Miracle Rogue Midrange Paladin Jade Druid
Gunther Mage 32% 37% 43% 42%
Taunt Warrior 37% 39% 44% 44%
Control Paladin 37% 39% 47% 45%
Jade Druid 35% 38% 47% 49%

 

Bans: Empanizado banned Midrange Paladin and Pinche banned Gunther Mage.

Both bans seem optimal, neither player can improve their position by changing their ban unilaterally.

Expected winner: Pinche at 57%

Games:

Control Paladin loses to Miracle Rogue

Jade Druid loses to Jade Druid

Control Paladin wins against Evolve Shaman

Taunt Warrior loses to Evolve Shaman

Empanizado 1 – Pinche 3.

Group C, losers match: Satancurseyo vs Nandieb

Satancurseyo: Miracle Rogue, Pirate Warrior, Evolve Shaman, Secret Mage

Nandieb: Evolve Shaman, Midrange Murloc Paladin, Hybrid Freeze Mage, Pirate Warrior

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Evolve Shaman Midrange Paladin Freeze Mage Pirate Warrior
Miracle Rogue 0.4 0.5 0.35 0.4
Pirate Warrior 0.38 0.62 0.55 0.5
Evolve Shaman 0.5 0.54 0.38 0.62
Secret Mage 0.45 0.45 0.56 0.47

 

Expected match winrates for each ban combination:

Decks Evolve Shaman Midrange Paladin Freeze Mage Pirate Warrior
Miracle Rogue 54% 48% 51% 49%
Pirate Warrior 45% 42% 46% 42%
Evolve Shaman 47% 40% 43% 45%
Secret Mage 49% 41% 49% 45%

 

Bans: Satancurseyo banned ? and Nandieb banned ?.

Games:

Not streamed.

Satancurseyo 1 – Nandieb 3.

Group C, decider match: Empanizado vs Nandieb

Empanizado: Gunther Mage, Taunt Warrior, N’Zoth Control Paladin, Jade Druid

Nandieb: Evolve Shaman, Midrange Murloc Paladin, Hybrid Freeze Mage, Pirate Warrior

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Evolve Shaman Midrange Paladin Freeze Mage Pirate Warrior
Gunther Mage 0.55 0.43 0.61 0.46
Taunt Warrior 0.59 0.32 0.58 0.5
Control Paladin 0.53 0.39 0.51 0.55
Jade Druid 0.47 0.37 0.71 0.48

 

Expected match winrates for each ban combination:

Decks Evolve Shaman Midrange Paladin Freeze Mage Pirate Warrior
Gunther Mage 51% 59% 45% 52%
Taunt Warrior 52% 58% 45% 53%
Control Paladin 52% 60% 44% 56%
Jade Druid 48% 58% 48% 52%

 

Bans: Empanizado banned Midrange Paladin and Nandieb banned Gunther Mage.

Empanizado had a dominant strategy to ban Midrange Paladin. For Nandieb, Gunther Mage, Taunt Warrior, and Freeze Mage are all reasonable answers.

Expected winner: Empanizado at 59%

Games:

Taunt Warrior loses to Evolve Shaman

Taunt Warrior wins against Freeze Mage

Jade Druid loses to Pirate Warrior

Jade Druid wins against Freeze Mage

Control Paladin wins against Freeze Mage

Empanizado 3 – Nandieb 2.

Group D, round 1: CelticGuard vs Tuliowz

CelticGuard: Jade Druid, Evolve Shaman, N’Zoth Control Paladin, Hybrid Freeze Mage

Tuliowz: Evolve Shaman, Aggro Druid, Secret Mage, UK Paladin

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Evolve Shaman Aggro Druid Secret Mage UK Murloc Paladin
Jade Druid 0.47 0.38 0.42 0.34
Evolve Shaman 0.5 0.55 0.55 0.57
Control Paladin 0.53 0.66 0.51 0.51
Freeze Mage 0.63 0.69 0.44 0.59

 

Expected match winrates for each ban combination:

Decks Evolve Shaman Aggro Druid Secret Mage UK Murloc Paladin
Jade Druid 63% 57% 65% 62%
Evolve Shaman 49% 48% 54% 54%
Control Paladin 48% 49% 52% 52%
Freeze Mage 48% 47% 49% 50%

 

Bans: CelticGuard banned UK Paladin and Tuliowz banned Freeze Mage.

Both bans seem optimal, neither player can improve their position by changing their ban unilaterally.

Expected winner: It’s even!

Games:

Control Paladin wins against Secret Mage

Evolve Shaman wins against Secret Mage

Jade Druid wins against Aggro Druid

CelticGuard 3 – Tuliowz 0.

Group D, round 1: Rala vs Perna

Rala: Jade Druid, Evolve Shaman, N’Zoth Control Paladin, Hybrid Freeze Mage

Perna: Pirate Warrior, Evolve Shaman, Gunther Mage, Aggro Druid

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Pirate Warrior Evolve Shaman Gunther Mage Aggro Druid
Jade Druid 0.48 0.47 0.62 0.38
Evolve Shaman 0.62 0.5 0.45 0.55
Control Paladin 0.55 0.53 0.48 0.66
Freeze Mage 0.45 0.63 0.39 0.69

 

Expected match winrates for each ban combination:

Decks Pirate Warrior Evolve Shaman Gunther Mage Aggro Druid
Jade Druid 59% 59% 64% 53%
Evolve Shaman 57% 54% 56% 52%
Control Paladin 53% 53% 54% 52%
Freeze Mage 53% 56% 54% 54%

 

Bans: Rala banned Evolve Shaman and Perna banned Freeze Mage.

Bans seem to work out for Rala: Evolve Shaman is the best response to a Freeze Mage ban from Perna. I would have expected a Control Paladin ban from Perna, as that seems the strongest deck against Perna’s lineup. For Rala, banning anything except Aggro Druid seems reasonable.

Expected winner: Rala at 56%

Games:

Control Paladin wins against Pirate Warrior

Jade Druid wins against Aggro Druid

Evolve Shaman loses to Gunther Mage

Evolve Shaman wins against Aggro Druid

Rala 3 – Perna 1.

Group D, winners’ match: CelticGuard vs Rala

CelticGuard: Jade Druid, Evolve Shaman, N’Zoth Control Paladin, Hybrid Freeze Mage

Rala: Jade Druid, Evolve Shaman, N’Zoth Control Paladin, Hybrid Freeze Mage

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Jade Druid Evolve Shaman Control Paladin Freeze Mage
Jade Druid 0.5 0.47 0.67 0.71
Evolve Shaman 0.53 0.5 0.47 0.38
Control Paladin 0.33 0.53 0.5 0.51
Freeze Mage 0.29 0.63 0.49 0.5

 

Expected match winrates for each ban combination:

Decks Jade Druid Evolve Shaman Control Paladin Freeze Mage
Jade Druid 50% 40% 45% 46%
Evolve Shaman 60% 50% 51% 50%
Control Paladin 55% 49% 50% 51%
Freeze Mage 54% 51% 49% 50%

 

Bans: CelticGuard banned Jade Druid and Rala banned Jade Druid.

Both bring control lineups, both ban Jade Druid. Makes perfect sense.

Expected winner: It’s even! Even all archetypes are the same!

Games:

Control Paladin loses to Freeze Mage

Control Paladin wins against Control Paladin

Freeze Mage wins against Control Paladin

Evolve Shaman wins against Control Paladin

CelticGuard 3 – Rala 1.

Group D, losers’ match: Perna vs Tuliowz

Perna: Pirate Warrior, Evolve Shaman, Gunther Mage, Aggro Druid

Tuliowz: Evolve Shaman, Aggro Druid, Secret Mage, UK Paladin

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Evolve Shaman Aggro Druid Secret Mage UK Murloc Paladin
Pirate Warrior 0.38 0.39 0.53 0.57
Evolve Shaman 0.5 0.55 0.55 0.57
Gunther Mage 0.55 0.54 0.49 0.44
Aggro Druid 0.45 0.5 0.41 0.6

 

Expected match winrates for each ban combination:

Decks Evolve Shaman Aggro Druid Secret Mage UK Murloc Paladin
Pirate Warrior 53% 51% 54% 51%
Evolve Shaman 50% 49% 48% 44%
Gunther Mage 54% 52% 51% 45%
Aggro Druid 53% 52% 49% 49%

 

Bans: Perna banned ? and Tuliowz banned ?.

Expected winner:

Games:

Not streamed.

Perna 3 – Tuliowz 2.

Group D, decider match: Rala vs Perna

Rala: Jade Druid, Evolve Shaman, N’Zoth Control Paladin, Hybrid Freeze Mage

Perna: Pirate Warrior, Evolve Shaman, Gunther Mage, Aggro Druid

Expected win rates for each matchup:

Decks Pirate Warrior Evolve Shaman Gunther Mage Aggro Druid
Jade Druid 0.48 0.47 0.62 0.38
Evolve Shaman 0.62 0.5 0.45 0.55
Control Paladin 0.55 0.53 0.48 0.66
Freeze Mage 0.45 0.63 0.39 0.69

 

Expected match winrates for each ban combination:

Decks Pirate Warrior Evolve Shaman Gunther Mage Aggro Druid
Jade Druid 59% 59% 64% 53%
Evolve Shaman 57% 54% 56% 52%
Control Paladin 53% 53% 54% 52%
Freeze Mage 53% 56% 54% 54%

 

Bans: Rala banned Evolve Shaman and Perna banned Freeze Mage.

Same bans as on round 1, and they still favor Rala: Evolve Shaman is the best response to a Freeze Mage ban from Perna. I would have expected a Control Paladin ban from Perna, as that seems the strongest deck against Perna’s lineup. For Rala, banning anything except Aggro Druid seems reasonable.

Expected winner: Rala at 56%

Games:

Control Paladin loses to Gunther Mage

Control Paladin wins against Aggro Druid

Evolve Shaman loses to Aggro Druid

Evolve Shaman wins against Pirate Warrior

Jade Druid loses to Pirate Warrior

Rala 2 – Perna 3.